Part A PFS 2016-17

Principal Follow-Up Survey (PFS 2016-17) to the National Teacher and Principal

Survey (NTPS 2015-16)

Supporting Statement

Part A

OMB# 1850-new v.1

October 2016

National Center for Education Statistics (NCES)

U.S. Department of Education

TABLE OF CONTENTS

A. Justification 3

1. Circumstances Necessitating Collection of Information 3

a. Legislative Authority 3

b. Prior and Related Studies 3

c. Study Design 3

2. Purposes and Use of Data 4

a. Research Issues Addressed 4

3. Appropriate Use of Information Technology 4

4. Efforts to Identify Duplication 4

5. Collection of Data from Small Schools 4

6. Frequency of Data Collection 4

7. Special Circumstances of Data Collection 4

8. Consultation Outside the Agency 5

9. Provision of Payments or Gifts to Respondents 6

10. Assurance of Confidentiality 6

11. Sensitive Questions 6

12. Estimates of Hour Burden 6

13. Estimates of Cost Burden 7

14. Costs to Federal Government 7

15. Reason for Change in Burden 7

16. Project Schedule 7

17. Request Not to Display the Expiration Date 7

18. Exceptions to the Certification 7

B. Collection of Information Employing Statistical Methods

C. Item Justification

Attachment A: Principal Follow-up Survey (PFS) Respondent Contact Materials

Attachment B: Principal Follow-up Survey (PFS) Questionnaires

Part A: JUSTIFICATION

2016-17 Principal Follow-up Survey (PFS) - Request for Clearance

This request is to conduct data collection for the 2016-17 Principal Follow-up Survey (PFS), a one-year follow up of principals who responded to the 2015-16 National Teacher and Principal Survey (NTPS). PFS is conducted by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), of the Institute of Education Sciences (IES), within the U.S. Department of Education (ED). The PFS has been conducted two times previously: beginning in 2008-09 as a follow up to the Schools and Staffing Survey (SASS) in 2007-08 (OMB# 1850-0598 v.5) and, subsequently, as a follow-up to SASS in 2012-2013 (OMB# 1850-0598 v.9). The 1850-0598 OMB# has been primarily used for SASS data collections and is now used for SASS’s redesigned successor survey, NTPS. Given that NTPS will be conducted every other year, to avoid confusion between NTPS and its follow up studies, we are seeking a new OMB number for PFS, which will be used for all PFS clearance submissions going forward.

During the 2015-16 school year, NCES conducted the first NTPS (OMB #1850-0598 v.11), a redesign of SASS to improve the flexibility, efficiency, and timeliness of NCES data on the nation’s K-12 schools, principals, and teachers. PFS 2016-17 will be the first to launch from the redesigned NTPS. The PFS survey design and content remain highly consistent with earlier administrations with one exception. Because the first administration of NTPS in 2015-16 was limited to public schools due to concerns over falling response rates in private schools, PFS 2016-17, unlike previous administrations, will of necessity be limited to public school principals.

A.1 Circumstances Necessitating Collection of Information

PFS 2016-17, like earlier PFS collections, will measure the one-year attrition rates of principals who leave the profession, and will permit comparisons of stayers, movers, and leavers. “Stayers” are principals who remain in the same school between the NTPS year of data collection and the follow-up year; “movers” are principals who stay in the profession but change schools between the NTPS year and the follow-up year; and “leavers” are NTPS respondents who leave the principal profession between the NTPS year and the follow-up year.

In addition to the data collected during PFS 2016-17, the resulting PFS analysis file will also include data on principal characteristics, qualifications, and perceptions of the school environment from data collected in NTPS 2015-16. Together, NTPS and PFS will provide national data on turnover in the principal workforce, including rates of entry and attrition from principalship; sources and characteristics of newly hired principals; characteristics and destinations of leavers; and thanks to the cross-sectional repeated design of PFS, analyses of trends related to these topics.

A.1.a Legislative Authority

NCES is authorized to conduct NTPS and PFS by the Education Sciences Reform Act of 2002 (20 U.S.C. § 9543).

A.1.b Prior and Related Studies

An integrated survey system called the Schools and Staffing Survey (SASS) was first fielded in school year 1987-88. It was subsequently collected every 3 years through 1993-94, then underwent a 6-year pause for major survey design revisions. These resulted in a 1999-2000 data collection, after which SASS was collected on a 4-year cycle, with each SASS data collection followed one year later by the Teacher Follow-up Survey (TFS) and the Principal Follow-up Survey (PFS) data collections. The most recent administration of SASS was in 2011-12. At the conclusion of the 2011-12 collection, NCES redesigned SASS and named it the National Teacher and Principal Survey (NTPS) to reflect its narrowed focus on the teacher and principal labor market and on the state of K-12 school staff. NCES first conducted NTPS in 2015-16 and will conduct the PFS in 2016-17 (OMB #1850-new v.1).

First collected in school year 2008–09, the PFS was designed as a one-year follow-up to SASS 2007–08. PFS 2008–09 assessed how many school principals in the 2007–08 school year still worked as principals in the same school in the 2008–09 school year, how many had moved to become principals at other schools, and how many had left the principalship altogether. All principals who completed SASS 2007–08 were eligible for PFS2008–09.

A.1.c PFS Study Design

The next PFS will be conducted during the school year following NTPS 2015-16, and will use the PFS form to collect information about the current occupational status of the principal who was that school’s principal a year earlier, during NTPS 2015-16. PFS data will be collected entirely using paper questionnaires as was done for PFS 2012-13. Paper questionnaires will be re-mailed to sampled schools and/or principals upon request. The only content changes to the PFS questionnaires from the previous cycle is that the two private school versions of the questionnaire (PFS-1B, PFS-1D) have been removed for PFS 2016-17 because private schools were not sampled for inclusion in NTPS 2015-16.

A.2 Purposes and Uses of Data

Data collected during PFS produce national estimates about principals in public schools. The resulting data file includes responses to question one on the PFS form (principal’s occupational status). The PFS data file are merged with the previous year’s NTPS principal data file to provide a rich dataset for analyzing information about principals in K-12 schools in the United States.

The data will be used by Congress, the U.S. Department of Education, other Federal agencies, State Departments of Education (also known as State Education Agencies or SEAs), private education and other associations concerned with elementary and secondary education, and education research organizations. As a baseline measure, the results from the first PFS collected in 2008-09 received immediate attention from the education media, SEA planners, researchers, and advocacy organizations interested in the dynamics of the principal labor force.

A.2.a Research Issues Addressed

Unlike general labor market studies conducted by the U.S Department of Labor, NCES is able to produce more detailed attrition rates for understanding the nature, composition, and dynamics of the principal workforce. The proposed PFS 2016-17 data collection is critical to understanding the impact of principal workforce policies and economic conditions on the 2015-16 principal workforce.

A.3 Appropriate Use of Information Technology

As in NTPS 2015-16 and prior administrations of PFS, the PFS 2016-17 data collection will be carried out for NCES by the Census Bureau (Census) under an interagency agreement. Technology will be applied appropriately to keep respondent burden to a minimum. The one-page PFS questionnaire will be mailed to each NTPS 2015-16 sample school to gather the current occupational status of the person who was the school’s principal during NTPS 2015-16.

In order to collect occupation status information about the principal when the school fails to complete their PFS questionnaire or to verify the school’s response when the school has indicated that the principal has since left their 2015-16 school (i.e., is a non-stayer), a slightly different version of the PFS questionnaire will be mailed directly to each sampled principal at his or her home mailing address, which was collected as part of the NTPS 2015-16 Principal Questionnaire. In addition to receiving mailed PFS correspondence, sampled principals will be contacted via email throughout data collection using the email addresses collected during NTPS2015-16. When necessary, additional research operations will be conducted to find email addresses for sampled principals whose email address was not collected during NTPS2015-16 or for whom it proves no longer valid.

Census contact center staff will implement telephone reminders and follow-up operations with sample schools and principals to encourage those that have not yet responded to complete their PFS questionnaire. When possible, interviewers will collect principal status information over the phone. These operations will take place concurrently with a reminder mailout throughout the spring of 2017.

A.4 Efforts to Identify Duplication

Available data sources were examined to determine that the data were not available elsewhere. NCES staff continues to monitor the field of principal attrition and retention in preparation for subsequent PFS administrations. As of this submission, no duplicate efforts have been identified.

A.5 Collection of Data from Small Schools

The burden on small schools was minimized during the NTPS 2015-16 data collection through the sample design that specified the selection of schools as a function of size defined by the number of teachers. Small schools, therefore, were sampled at lower rates than larger schools because they comprise a smaller proportion of the teacher population per school. Because PFS is a follow-up study of schools that participated in NTPS, the burden of PFS on small schools has likewise been minimized.

A.6 Frequency of Data Collection

NCES plans to continue collecting the PFS data every four years, during every other cycle of NTPS.

A.7 Special Circumstances of Data Collection

No special circumstances for this information collection are anticipated.

A.8 Consultations Outside the Agency

NCES conducts NTPS and its follow-up study, PFS, in close consultation with other offices and organizations within and outside the U.S. Department of Education.

Since its initial conception, PFS development has relied on the substantive and technical review and comment of people both inside and outside the Department of Education. Through a series of technical review panel meetings, the plans for PFS content, design, analysis, and reporting have been shared with data providers at all levels and data users including researchers and policymakers. Below are listed those who helped shape the PFS from outside of the Department of Education, with their name and affiliation at the time they provided input.

Sarah Almy

Director of Teacher Quality

Education Trust

Prof. David Figlio

Warrington College of Business Administration

University of Florida

Prof. Daniel Goldhaber

Evans School of Public Affairs

University of Washington

Prof. Jennifer Imazeki

Department of Economics

San Diego State University

Prof. Richard Ingersoll

Graduate School of Education

University of Pennsylvania

Prof. Susan Moore Johnson

Graduate School of Education

Harvard University

Prof. Edward Liu

Graduate School of Education

Rutgers University

Prof. Susanna Loeb

School of Education

Stanford University

Mr. Michael Long

ICF International

Howard Nelson

Senior Associate Director

American Federation of Teachers

Michael Podgursky

Department of Economics

University of Missouri

Prof. Steve Rivkin

Department of Economics

Amherst College

Prof. Tim Sass

Department of Economics

Florida State University

Prof. Jianping Shen

Department of Teaching, Learning, and Leadership

Western Michigan University

Elena Silva

Education Sector

Michael Strong

Director of Research

New Teacher Center, UC Santa Cruz

The following experts served as part of the PFS team in previous rounds of administration:

David Marker, Statistician, Westat

Rebecca Goldring, Statistician, Westat

Lou Rizzo, Statistician, Westat

The PFS 2016-17 design has benefited from consultation with the following federal experts:

Amy Ho, Statistician, National Center for Education Statistics

Andy Zukerberg, Statistician, National Center for Education Statistics

Chelsea Owens, Statistician, National Center for Education Statistics

Cleo Redline, Statistician, National Center for Education Statistics

Deanne Swan, Statistician, National Center for Education Statistics

Sharon Boivin, Statistician, National Center for Education Statistics

Stephen Broughman, Statistician, National Center for Education Statistics

Carolyn Pickering, Survey Director, Education Surveys Team, U.S. Census Bureau

James Farber, Statistician, Demographic Survey Methods Division, U.S. Census Bureau

Shawna Cox, Assistant Survey Director, Education Surveys Team, U.S. Census Bureau

A.9 Provision of Payments or Gifts to Respondents

There will be no provision of payments or gifts to respondents for PFS 2016-17.

A.10 Assurance of Confidentiality

From the initial contact with the participants in this survey through all the follow-up efforts, careful attention will be paid to informing potential survey respondents that NCES and the Bureau of the Census will protect their personal data. The respondents will be informed that the study is authorized by law under the Education Sciences Reform Act, 20 U.S. Code §9541(b) and §9543, that their participation is voluntary, and their responses may only be used for statistical purposes and may not be disclosed, or used, in identifiable form for any other purpose except as required by law [Education Sciences Reform Act of 2002 (ESRA 2002), 20 U.S. Code, § 9573]. The following language will be included in respondent contact materials:

All of your responses may be used only for statistical purposes and may not be disclosed, or used, in identifiable form for any other purpose except as required by law (20 U.S.C., §9573).

The following language will be included on the questionnaires:

According to the Paperwork Reduction Act of 1995, no persons are required to respond to a collection of information unless it displays a valid OMB control number. The valid OMB control number for this voluntary information collection is 1850-XXXX. The time required to complete this information collection is estimated to average 5 minutes per response, including the time to review instructions, search existing data resources, gather the data needed, and complete and review the information collection. If you have any comments concerning the accuracy of the time estimate, suggestions for improving this collection, or comments or concerns about the contents or the status of your individual submission of this questionnaire, please e-mail:[TBD: insert email] or write directly to: National Teacher and Principal Survey (NTPS), National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), 550 12^th St. SW #4014, Washington, DC 20004.

Some identifying information must be collected from principals to permit follow-up of PFS respondents who returned incomplete surveys so that missing and inconsistent data can be corrected. To accomplish this, the questionnaire asks sampled principals to verify or update their name, home address, telephone numbers, and email addresses. School staff are asked to provide the name of the 2015–16 principal if it does not match the name on the NTPS 2015-16 record.

A.11 Sensitive Questions

Questionnaire items on the PFS 2016-17 are not considered to be sensitive.

A.12 Estimated Response Burden

In table 1, the sample size for mailings to schools reflects the number of principals who responded to the NTPS 2015-16 principal survey. The sample size for direct mailings to principals from nonresponding schools is based on the percentage of forms received from non-responding schools in PFS 2012-13 (1%), and for non-stayer principals it is based on the percentage of non-stayer principals in PFS 2012-13 (27%). The estimated numbers of respondents and the estimated burden time per respondent are also based on those in PFS 2012-13 (respectively: 99% response rate for public school principals, unweighted; 5 minutes).

Table A1 Details of Information Collection Burden for PFS 2016-17

Respondent Type: Survey	Sample Size	Estimated Response Rate	Estimated Number of Respondents	Estimated Number of Responses	Estimated burden time per respondent	Total Burden Hours
Schools: Principal Status Form (PFS-1A)	5,713	0.99	5,656	5,656	5 minutes	472
Principals From Non-Responding Schools: Principal Status Form (PFS-1C)	57	0.99	56	56	5 minutes	5
Non-Stayers: Principal Status Form (PFS-1C)	1,543	0.99	1,528	1,528	5 minutes	128
TOTAL	--	--	7,240	7,240	--	603

The average hourly earnings of principals/education administrators in the May 2015 National Occupational and Employment Wage Estimates provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is $44.68¹. Therefore, the total estimated burden time response cost for PFS 2016-17 is $26,943.

A.13 Estimates of Cost Burden

Respondents for PFS surveys will not incur any cost other than the time it takes to respond.

A.14 Cost to the Federal Government

The cost to the federal government for PFS 2016-17 work by Census is estimated to be $450,000, per individual estimates developed within each Census division involved in PFS. This estimate is based on the sample size, questionnaire length, and data processing requirements, and includes administrative overhead, forms design, printing, and mailing costs. Additionally, PFS 2016-17 is conducted with the support of Westat, for an estimated additional $67,000. In total, PFS 2016-17 is estimated to cost the Federal Government approximately $517,000.

A.15 Reason for Change in Burden

This is a new collection and, as such, represents an increase in respondent burden. However, please note that PFS has been conducted two times previously beginning in 2008-09 as a follow up to the Schools and Staffing Survey (SASS) in 2007-08 (OMB# 1850-0598 v.5) and, subsequently, as a follow-up to SASS in 2012-2013 (OMB# 1850-0598 v.9). The 1850-0598 OMB# has been primarily used for SASS data collections and is now used for SASS’s redesigned successor survey, NTPS. Given that NTPS will be conducted every other year, to avoid confusion between NTPS and its follow up studies, we are seeking a new OMB number for PFS, which will be used for all PFS clearance submissions going forward.

A.16 Project Schedule

In addition to a restricted use data file, NCES plans to produce the following online reports:

• A Survey Documentation report summarizing the procedures for sampling, data collection, data control, and data processing;

• A “First Look” report containing tabular summaries of basic data for dissemination to a broad audience; and

• A Data File User’s Manual.

PFS 2016-17 activities will be conducted according to the following time schedule:

Activity	Timing of activity
PFS Operations
Principal Status Forms (PFS-1A) and letter mailed to sampled schools	March 2017
Reminder letter with a second PFS-1A mailed to sampled schools	March 2017
Telephone non-response follow-up with schools that did not return the PFS-1A	April 2017
Principal Status Forms (PFS-1C) and letter mailed to principals in nonresponding schools	May 2017
E-mail reminder to non-responding principals	May 2017
Telephone non-response follow-up with principals that did not return the PFS-1C	May - June 2017
Verification Operations (for ‘Leaver’ Principals)
Introductory letter (PFS-31L(V)) and the Principal Status Form (PFS-1C) mailed to ‘leaver’ principals	April - May 2017
E-mail reminder to non-responding ‘leaver’ study principals	April - May 2017
Telephone non-response follow-up with principals that did return the PFS-1C	April - June 2017

A.17 Request Not to Display Expiration Date

NCES is not seeking approval not to display the expiration date of OMB approval.

A.18 Exceptions to the Certification

There are no exceptions to the topics in Item 19 of Form OMB 83-1.

1 Source: BLS Occupation Employment Statistics, http://data.bls.gov/oes/ data type: Occupation codes: Education Administrators, Elementary and Secondary Schools (11-9032) and all employees (00-0000); accessed on April 5, 2016.